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How to Have Hard Money Conversations

Editorial Note: The editorial content on this page is not provided or commissioned by any financial institution. Any opinions, analyses, reviews, statements or recommendations expressed in this article are those of the author’s alone, and may not have been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any of these entities prior to publication.

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When it comes to money, 61% of women would rather talk about their own death, according to a report by Merrill Lynch and Age Wave. Meanwhile, 43% of people in a Fidelity study failed to correctly identify how much their partner makes.

If money is something we all deal with, why is it so hard to discuss? “It’s a really delicate issue because we all have different needs and priorities when it comes to finances, and what one person may value to save and protect might not be the same with someone else,” said Lizzie Post, great-great-granddaughter of etiquette guru Emily Post and co-president of The Emily Post Institute. “Plus, even if we’re comfortable sharing, we’re aware that other people might not be.”

Of course, not talking about money isn’t really a viable option, especially when it comes to the important people in our lives, and having those hard money conversations can actually lead to a better understanding of how to manage financial issues with other people. No matter who you’re talking with, Tammy Butts, regional executive vice president and branch manager for AXA Advisors, suggested following three rules:

  1. Start early. Whether it’s a spouse or partner, your children or a roommate, the sooner you can start having money conversations, the better — “you want to ultimately have them before you’re at the crossroads.”
  2. Develop a plan. When you develop a strategy, it allows you to make solid financial decisions. A good strategy to start with is determining the important financial information you’ll need before moving forward with a conversation. Depending on whom you’re talking to and what you’re discussing, you may need to share specific details about assets, where that money is kept and what you plan to do with it.
  3. Keep communicating. One conversation is a good start, but in some cases you’ll need to talk more frequently about a particular topic. Communicating frequently about and updating your plan as necessary will allow you to make decisions and stay on track.

Besides following those three rules, understanding the etiquette and psychology behind money conversations with different types of people in your life will help you ace those particular talks the next time you need to have them.

How to talk about money with your partner

Why it can be difficult: When it comes to your partner, you could be discussing pivotal issues that greatly impact you both, like how to handle debt, how you’ll split shared financial responsibilities and whether or not you’ll be combining your finances. “When we think about equality in relationships, this is one of those places where people can feel a big divide depending on how they’re willing to contribute and see their differences,” Post said.

From an etiquette perspective: As far as etiquette goes, Post suggested coming at any conversation with your partner from a place of understanding. “Take a minute to say, ‘I know this person, but I may not know how they feel about financial matters,’” she said. “That often puts you in a place of being willing to ask questions, rather than just make statements.”

Post suggested asking your partner when a good time would be to discuss a certain financial topic, rather than demand it happen in the moment. For instance, asking if they’d be willing to sit down and have a conversation about managing joint expenses, rather than declaring that it’s time to open a joint checking account. It’s important to also ask your partner to be willing to talk about what their ideas might be and what their expectations are: “You’re trying to create a space where you’ll gather all the information about each other, rather than just come up with a solution right off the bat.” As Post noted, it should be about creating a safe space to first put forth ideas, even if you don’t come up with a solution right away.

From a financial perspective: According to Nathan Astle, student board member of the Financial Therapy Association, it’s important to remember that because money is driven by so much emotion, you should go into the conversation with a certain amount of preparation for emotional responses, for both you and your partner. Remember to speak for yourself with phrases like, “I feel,” instead of “you are,” validate their point of view (even when you disagree) and take a break if the discussion gets too heated (with the expectation that you’ll come back to the topic once you’ve cooled down). Keep the end goal that you’ll talk about what you want to get from the relationship and how you believe money can help you get there, he added.

Using a budgeting app can also help keep everything in one place so conversations are easier moving forward — here are 11 good ones that are totally free.

How to talk about money with your kids

Why it can be difficult: The types of conversations you have with your children will depend on their age, but talking about subjects like saving, credit and debt can make a big impact in your kids’ lives. In fact, while two-thirds of Americans say their family or parents influenced their saving and spending habits, only 56% of American parents said they have actually talked with their kids about money, according to a Chase survey.

From an etiquette perspective: As with your partner, Post advised to always invite your child to have a financial conversation before actually having it. Say something like, “I’d like to talk with you about your allowance, and your mom and I have some ideas and wanted to talk with you about what we’re thinking.” Depending on your plan of action, you can also let your kid know if you’re open to suggestions (as in, “Mom and I have some ideas about your allowance and wanted to get your opinion”).

From a financial perspective: Remember to always keep your kid’s maturity level in mind before bringing up emotional financial topics. “When children are involved in adult financial matters too soon, serious problems can occur,” said Sarah Swantner, a certified financial planner and financial therapist in Rapid City, South Dakota. Instead, “have age-appropriate conversations around money and involve kids in money activities that are rooted in real life, like saving for a much-wanted toy or doing chores to earn money,” said Swantner. “But keep them out of the family financial stress.”

Butts also reminded parents that talking to their kids about money shouldn’t end as they age. “Talk to them about saving when they’re in grade school and college and as young adults, as well,” she said. “I see my clients with their kids, and I have the same discussions with my own adult children about credit. It’s so important we keep educating these young people.”

How to talk about money with your parents

Why it can be difficult: At a certain point, the parent-kid conversation flips and it becomes the adult child’s responsibility to potentially talk about some uncomfortable money topics with their parents — these could include anything from legacy planning, taking over finances or overspending in retirement. It can be especially difficult if there is a history with your parents of not talking about money, Swantner said.

From an etiquette perspective: Much like the conversations before, Post suggested that any financial conversation with your parents should start with a request. “Ask permission to have the conversation, and when you get it, ask to what degree they are comfortable talking about it with you — let them know you don’t want to overstep your bounds,” she said. Always thank your parents for sharing whatever they’re willing to, and ask if you can revisit the topic again in the future to touch base and make sure things are staying the same, or to address them if they’ve changed.

From a financial perspective: The sooner you can start talking about some of these important topics and getting the infrastructure in place, the better. Still, Butts admitted that this is the topic where she tends to see the most difficulty and friction. “You don’t want any surprises, and the more you can make some of these decisions in advance so you don’t have any, you can hopefully have more harmonious outcomes,” she said. “This is where getting an advisor as a neutral third party can help facilitate those conversations.”

Without the help of a third party, however, Swantner suggested sticking to the facts. “Avoid judgments and evaluations,” she said. “Focus your conversation on yourself and not the other person, making your concerns and requests for information clear. If your parents realize they will be helping you by sharing the information, they may be more likely to open up.”

How to talk about money with your friends

Why it can be difficult: Talking to people our own age about money can bring up feelings of inadequacy if the scales seem tilted in one direction. In fact, 44% of people in a Bank of American survey said that money was a major cause of stress in a friendship.

From an etiquette perspective: You can make your life a whole lot easier by being direct with your friends about certain financial situations. “I find there are less assumptions made about me if I open up just a little bit about whether budget is or isn’t a concern,” said Post. She suggested trying something like: “Johnny, I would so love to celebrate your birthday. Financially, I’m trying to stick to my budget, but I would love to have you over for a cup of coffee for some one-on-one time.”

From a financial perspective: Keep in mind that taking some initiative can prevent most difficult money conversations with friends from happening in the first place. “Before everyone starts ordering, make sure that you are okay just splitting the bill so everyone pays for what they bought,” Astle said. There are plenty of apps available to help make splitting the bill less painful. If lending money is the issue at hand, Astle noted it’s always best to treat those situations as you would any other legal transaction. “That takes some of the hard emotional stuff out of the conversation since it keeps you, your money and the relationship safe.”

How to talk about money with your roommates

Why it can be difficult: Chatting with roommates about financial topics can be tricky, since the areas you’ll likely be covering — rent and other shared financial responsibilities — impact all parties on a daily basis. Plus, living with someone you’ve had an uncomfortable money conversation with can be downright unbearable.

From an etiquette perspective: Talking early and often is key to keeping problems at bay, but if a problem does arise — like someone missing rent, for example — it’s best to address the issue from a standpoint of “how are we going to solve this,” rather than from a place of anger, said Post. Again, you’ll want to ask for permission before having any conversation, and setting up a roommate talk on a monthly basis can help assure everyone stays on the same page.

From a financial perspective: If you have several roommates, Astle suggested treating any conversation like a family situation where everyone has equal say and everyone spends time trying to understand each individual. “It works wonders when people feel understood,” he said. Butts also recommended communicating up front that any money conversations between roommates should be about business versus personal. “If you can start by saying, ‘Let’s make this a business transaction,’ now it’s nobody pointing fingers — instead it’s about here’s what’s needed, here’s what everybody shares and here’s when it’s due.” Butts also suggested setting consequences ahead of time so there are no surprises, and potentially even putting it in writing and having everybody sign. “That way, if someone violates it, they knew, and now you aren’t just picking on them,” she said.

The bottom line

Whether you love ‘em or hate ‘em, at the end of the day, certain financial conversations become inevitable. Taking some time to understand the best approach in each scenario will help everyone come out of a money talk unscathed, and with the relationship still in tact.

Advertiser Disclosure: The products that appear on this site may be from companies from which MagnifyMoney receives compensation. This compensation may impact how and where products appear on this site (including, for example, the order in which they appear). MagnifyMoney does not include all financial institutions or all products offered available in the marketplace.

Cheryl Lock
Cheryl Lock |

Cheryl Lock is a writer at MagnifyMoney. You can email Cheryl at cheryl@magnifymoney.com

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2019 Fed Meeting Predictions — No More Rate Hikes Until 2020

Editorial Note: The editorial content on this page is not provided or commissioned by any financial institution. Any opinions, analyses, reviews, statements or recommendations expressed in this article are those of the author’s alone, and may not have been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any of these entities prior to publication.

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The March Fed meeting put the kibosh on more rate hikes in 2019. With FOMC policy on pause, market interest rates should hold steady (or even decline in some cases) for financial products you use every day. Read on for our predictions for each upcoming Fed meeting and updates on what went down at the most recent conclaves.

What happened at the March Fed meeting

The Federal Reserve signaled no rate hikes this year, and the possibility of only one increase in 2020. The Fed has pivoted pretty rapidly from its hawkish stance in 2018 to a more dovish outlook as it puts policy on ice. This change in tone grows directly from the FOMC’s observation of slowing growth in economic activity, namely household spending and business investment. The Fed also noted that employment gains have plateaued along with the unemployment rate, which nevertheless remains at very low levels.

So the federal funds rate looks to remain at 2.25% to 2.50% for a year or more, and the FOMC highlighted that this is the not-too-hot, not-too-cold level that for now best serves its dual mandate to “foster maximum employment and price stability.”

The Fed also released its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The March SEP indicated a median projected federal funds rate of 2.6% for 2020, which is why everybody is discussing the possibility of at least one, small increase next year.

For those who were really hoping for at least one more rate hike, all is not lost — Tendayi Kapfidze, LendingTree chief economist, believes we shouldn’t take March’s decision too gravely. “There are special factors that suggest the economy could reaccelerate,” he says. “The government shutdown threw a wrench into things, slowing some activity and distorting how we measure the economy.” He also remarks that since the financial crisis, data in the first quarter has continued to come in weak, still leaving room for everything to reaccelerate in the second and third quarters. He points to the already strong labor market as a plus.

Fed economic forecasts hint at a possible rate cut by the end of 2019. Just as the Fed projects a slightly higher federal funds rate in 2020, it also posted a projected 2.4% for 2019. Note that this projected rate falls below the upper end of the current rate corridor of 2.5%. This means the doves may want to see a possible rate cut if improvements in the economic outlook don’t materialize by mid-year.

When asked about this potential rate cut, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the Committee’s current positive outlook, while also emphasizing that it remains mindful of potential risks. Still, he maintained that “the data are not currently sending a signal that we need to move in one direction or another.” He also remarked that since it’s still early in the year, they have limited and mixed data to consult.

Kapfidze offers a more concretely positive outlook, noting that the chances of a rate cut are pretty slim. “To get a rate cut, you’d have to have sustained growth below 2%. There would have to be further weakness in the economy, like if trade deals get messier, to warrant a rate cut.”

The Fed downgraded its economic outlook for 2019 for the second time in recent months. In line with Kapfidze’s predictions, we did see a weaker economic outlook coming out of this month’s Fed meeting. The median GDP forecast for 2019 and 2020 decreased from December projections, while it remained the same for 2021 and beyond. This comes hand in hand with the decreased fed funds rate projections.

The FOMC increased their unemployment projections, which Kapfidze found surprising because the labor market has been so strong. “Maybe they believe that those numbers indicate a deceleration,” he said, “but really, it has to be consistent considering the other changes that they made.”

Why the Fed March meeting is important for you

It’s easy to let all of this monetary policy talk go in one ear and out the other. But what the Fed does or doesn’t change has an impact on your daily life. Without a rate hike since December, we’re already starting to see mortgage rates fall. This is helpful not only for those who want to buy a home, but also for those who bought homes at last year’s highs to refinance.

As for personal loans and credit cards, we may still see these rates continue to increase, just at a slower rate. These rates have little chance of decreasing because lenders may take the current weaker economic data as a sign that the economy is going to be more risky.

Deposit accounts will feel the opposite effects as banks may start to cut savings account rates. At best, banks will keep their rates where they are for now, until more evidence for a rate cut arises.

Our March Fed meeting predictions

There’s little chance of a rate hike this time around. In a policy speech on March 8, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced the FOMC’s patient approach when considering any changes to the current policy, indicating he saw “nothing in the outlook demanding an immediate policy response and particularly given muted inflation pressures.”

This is no different from what we heard back in January, when the Fed took a breather after its December rate hike. There was no change to the federal funds rate at that meeting, and Powell had stressed that the FOMC would be exercising patience throughout 2019, waiting for signs of risk from economic data before making any further policy changes.

Further strengthening the case for rates on hold, the reliably hawkish Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren cited several reasons that “justify a pause in the recent monetary tightening cycle,” in a policy speech on March 5. His big tell was citing the lack of immediate signs of strengthening inflation, which remains around the Fed’s target rate of 2%.

Even though there had been some speculation of a first quarter hike at the March Fed meeting, LendingTree chief economist Tendayi Kapfidze reminds us that the Fed remains, as ever, data-dependent. “The latest data has been on the weaker side, with the exception of wage inflation,” he says.

The economic forecast may be weaker than December’s. The Fed will release their longer-range economic predictions after the March meeting. These projections should include adjustments in the outlook for GDP, unemployment and inflation. The Fed will also provide its forecast for future federal funds rates.

Kapfidze expects we’ll see a weaker forecast this time around than what we saw in December. “I except the GDP forecast to go down, and the federal funds rate expectations to go down.” This follows a December report that posted lower numbers than the September projections.

Despite flagging economic projections, Rosengren offered a steady outlook in his speech. “My view is that the most likely outcome for 2019 is relatively healthy U.S. economic growth,” he said, again attributing this to “inflation very close to Fed policymakers’ 2 percent target and a U.S. labor market that continues to tighten somewhat.”

The Fed’s economic predictions offer clues to its future policy decisions. In September, the Fed projected a 2019 federal funds rate of 3.1%. That number dropped to 2.9% in the December report. With the current rate at 2.25% to 2.5%, there’s still room for more hikes this year. Keep in mind, however, that, the March meeting may narrow projections for the rest of 2019.

As for Kapfidze, he thinks we’ll see a rate hike in the second half of the year. “If wage inflation continues to increase and it trickles more into the economy, the Fed could choose to raise rates due to that risk.”

However, as of March 12, markets see the odds of a rate hike this year at zero, while the odds of a federal funds cut has risen to around 20%, based the Fed Fund futures.

Upcoming Fed meeting dates:

Here is the FOMC’s calendar of scheduled meetings for 2019. Each entry is tentative until confirmed at the meeting proceeding it. For past meetings, click on the dates below to catch up on our pre-game forecast and after-action report.

Our January Fed meeting predictions

Don’t expect a rate hike. The FOMC ended the year with yet another rate hike, raising the federal funds rate from 2.25 to 2.5%. It was the committee’s fourth increase of 2018, which began with a rate of just 1.5%.

But the January Fed meeting will likely be an increase-free one. Tendayi Kapfidze, chief economist at LendingTree, the parent company of MagnifyMoney, said the probability of a rate hike is “basically zero.”

Kapfidze’s assessment is twofold. First, he noted that the Fed typically announces rate increases during the third month of each quarter, not the first. This means a hike announcement would be much more likely during the FOMC’s March 19-20 meeting, rather than in January.

Perhaps more importantly, Kapfidze said there’s been too much market flux for the FOMC to make a new decision on the federal funds rate. He predicts the Fed will likely wait for more evidence before it considers another rate hike.

“I think a lot of it is a reaction to market volatility, and therefore that’s lowered the expectations for federal fund hikes,” Kapfidze said.

But if a rate hike is so unlikely, what should consumers expect from the January Fed meeting? Here are three things to keep an eye on.

#1 The frequency of rate hikes moving forward

It’s unclear when the next increase will occur, but the FOMC’s post-meeting statement could give a clearer picture of how often rate hikes might occur in the future.

The Fed released its latest economic projections last month, which predicted the federal funds rate would likely reach 2.9% by the end of 2019. This figure was a decline from its September 2018 projections, which placed that figure at 3.1%.

As a result, many analysts — Kapfidze included — are forecasting a slower year for rate hikes than in 2018. Kapfdize said some analysts are predicting zero increases, or even a rate decrease, but he believes that may be too conservative.

“I still think the underlying economic data supports at least two rate hikes, maybe even three,” Kapfidze said.

Kapfidze’s outlook falls more in line with the Fed’s current projections, as it would mean two rate hikes of 0.25% at some point this year. There could be more clarity after the January meeting, as the FOMC’s accompanying statement will help indicate whether the Fed’s monetary policy has changed since December.

#2 An economic forecast for 2019

The FOMC’s post-meeting statement always includes a brief assessment of the economy, and this month’s comments will provide a helpful first look at the outlook for 2019.

Consumers will have to wait until March for the Fed’s full projections — those are only updated after every other meeting — but the FOMC will follow its January gathering with its usual press release. This statement normally provides insight into the state of household spending, inflation, the unemployment rate and GDP growth, as well as a prediction of how quickly the economy will grow in the coming months.

At last month’s Fed meeting, the committee found that household spending was continuing to increase, unemployment was remaining low and overall inflation remained near 2%. Kapfidze expects January’s forecast to be fairly similar, as recent market fluctuations might make it difficult for the FOMC to predict any major changes.

Read more: What the Fed Rate Hike Means for Your Investments

“I wouldn’t expect any significant change in the tone compared to December,” Kapfidze said. “I think they’ll want to see a little more data come in, and a little more time pass.”

At the very least, the statement will let consumers know if the Fed is taking a patient approach to its analysis, a decision that may help indicate just how volatile the FOMC considers the economy to be.

#3 A response to the government shutdown

The big mystery entering January’s Fed meeting is the partial government shutdown. While Kapfidze said the FOMC’s outlook should be similar to December, he also warned that things could change quickly if Congress and President Trump can’t agree on a spending bill soon.

“The longer it goes on, and the more contentious it gets, the less confidence consumers have — the less confidence business have. And a lot of that could translate to increased financial market volatility,” Kapfidze said.

Kapfidze added that the longer the government stays closed, the more likely the FOMC is to react with a change in monetary policy. During the October 2013 shutdown, for example, the Fed’s Board of Governors released a statement encouraging banks and credit unions to allow consumers a chance at renegotiating debt payments, such as mortgages, student loans and credit cards.

“The agencies encourage financial institutions to consider prudent workout arrangements that increase the potential for creditworthy borrowers to meet their obligations,” the 2013 statement said.

What happened at the January Fed meeting:

No rate hike for now

In its first meeting of 2019, the Federal Open Market Committee announced it was keeping the federal fund rate at 2.25% to 2.5%, therefore not raising the rates, as widely predicted. This decision follows much speculation surrounding the economy after the Fed rate hike in December 2018, which was the fourth rate hike last year. In its press release, the FOMC cited the near-ideal inflation rate of 2%, strong job growth and low unemployment as reasons for leaving the rate unchanged.

In the post-meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed that the committee feels that its current policy is appropriate and will adopt a “wait-and-see approach” in regards to future policy changes.

Read more: How Fed Rate Hikes Change Borrowing and Savings Rates

Impact of government shutdown is yet to be seen

The FOMC’s official statement did not address the government shutdown in detail, although it was discussed briefly in the press conference that followed. Powell said he believes that any GDP lost due to the shutdown will be regained in the second quarter, providing there isn’t another shutdown. Any permanent effect would come from another shutdown, but he did not answer how a shutdown might change future policy.

What the January meeting bodes for the rest of the year

Don’t expect more rate hikes. As for what this decision might signal for the future, Powell maintains that the committee is “data dependent”. This data includes labor market conditions, inflation pressures and expectations and price stability. He stressed that they will remain patient while continuing to look at financial developments both abroad and at home. These factors will help determine when a rate adjustment would be appropriate, if at all. When asked whether a rate change would mean an increase or a decrease, he emphasized again the use of this data for clarification on any changes. Still, the Fed did predict in December that the federal funds rate could reach 2.9% by the end of this year, indicating a positive change rather than a negative one.

CD’s might start looking better. For conservative savers wondering whether or not it’s worth it to tie up funds in CDs and risk missing out on future rate hikes – long-term CDs are looking like a safer and safer bet, according to Ken Tumin, founder of DepositAccounts.com, another LendingTree-owned site. Post-Fed meeting, Tumin wrote in his outlook, “I can’t say for sure, but it’s beginning to look more likely that we have already passed the rate peak of this cycle. It may be time to start moving money into long-term CDs.”

Look out for March. Depending on who you ask, the FOMC’s inaction was to be expected. As Tendayi Kapfidze, LendingTree’s chief economist, noted [below], if there is going to be a rate increase this quarter, it will be announced in the FOMC’s March meeting. We will also have to wait for the March meeting to get the Fed’s full economic projections. For now, its statement confirms that household spending is still on an incline, inflation remains under control and unemployment is low. It also notes that growth of business fixed investment has slowed down from last year. As for inflation, market-based measures have decreased in recent months, but survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations haven’t changed much.

 

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Learn more: What is the Federal Open Market Committee?

The FOMC is one of two monetary policy-controlling bodies within the Federal Reserve. While the Fed’s Board of Governors oversees the discount rate and reserve requirements, the FOMC is responsible for open market operations, which are defined as the purchase and sale of securities by a central bank.

Most importantly, the committee controls the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks and credit unions can lend reserve balances to other banks and credit unions.

The committee has eight scheduled meetings each year, during which its members assess the current economic environment and make decisions about national monetary policy — including whether it will institute new rate hikes.

A look back at 2018

Before the FOMC gathers this January, it’s worth understanding what the Fed did in 2018, and how those decisions might affect future policy.

The year 2018 was the Fed’s most aggressive rate-raising year in a decade. The FOMC’s four rate hikes were the most since the 2008 Financial Crisis, after the funds rate stayed at nearly zero for seven years. This approach was largely based on the the FOMC’s economic projections, which found that from 2017 to 2018 GDP grew, unemployment declined and inflation its Fed-preferred rate of 2%.

In addition to the rate hikes, the FOMC also continued to implement its balance sheet normalization program, through which the Fed is aiming to reduce its securities holdings.

Advertiser Disclosure: The products that appear on this site may be from companies from which MagnifyMoney receives compensation. This compensation may impact how and where products appear on this site (including, for example, the order in which they appear). MagnifyMoney does not include all financial institutions or all products offered available in the marketplace.

Dillon Thompson
Dillon Thompson |

Dillon Thompson is a writer at MagnifyMoney. You can email Dillon here

Lauren Perez
Lauren Perez |

Lauren Perez is a writer at MagnifyMoney. You can email Lauren here

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