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The Pumpkin Spice Tax: Retailers Charge More, Shoppers Get Less for Pumpkin-Flavored Products

Editorial Note: The editorial content on this page is not provided or commissioned by any financial institution. Any opinions, analyses, reviews, statements or recommendations expressed in this article are those of the author’s alone, and may not have been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any of these entities prior to publication.

Cue the pumpkin spice tax rebellion.

A MagnifyMoney analysis of pumpkin spice-flavored items at several grocery stores and coffee shops found that customers often pay a premium for that perennial autumn flavor — in essence, a “pumpkin spice tax” that can be up to 133 percent higher on a per-unit (ounces) basis.

In the study, we compared the prices of the pumpkin spice and standard flavors of more than 200 food and beverage items at a half-dozen Manhattan-area retailers and restaurants in late September. We reviewed items in person at Trader Joe’s, Whole Foods, Fairway, CVS, Starbucks, Pret a Manger, Panera, Dunkin’ Donuts and McDonald’s. We supplemented our findings with a review of products at three online retailers — Walmart.com, Target.com and FreshDirect.com.

Pumpkin spice mania has reached a fever pitch in recent years, as retailers have rushed to incorporate the flavor into just about every item in our pantries — from cookies and cereals to bagels and waffle mixes.

Not only are some retailers charging significant surcharges on pumpkin spice-flavored products, but consumers are often paying more and getting less in return.

Read on for our full analysis. Or skip ahead to:

Retailer Spotlights:

Key Findings:

The average pumpkin spice rate: Across the roughly 200 products reviewed, we found an average pumpkin spice tax rate of 7.98% (per ounce/unit). That rate could be many times higher depending on the retailer. At Trader Joe’s, for example, the average pumpkin spice tax rate was 62%.

Pumpkin spice fans often pay more for less. Many retailers don’t just charge more for seasonal items — they give shoppers less product for their money. On FreshDirect.com, for example, a 6.5-oz. Pumpkin Pie Spice version of Land O’Lakes Spreadable Butter sold for $2.99, while the 8-oz. Land O’Lakes Spreadable Butter With Canola Oil sold for about 10 cents less, or $2.89. On a price per ounce basis, the Pumpkin pie spice option sold at a 28 percent premium. We found many more examples of retailers charging more for pumpkin-flavored products but offering less product.

Trader Joe’s was the worst pumpkin spice tax offender. Some retailers are more aggressive with pumpkin spice surcharges than others.. It claimed three of the top 10 highest pumpkin spice tax rates in our study. Among 10 products analyzed at Trader Joe’s, for example, we found an average pumpkin spice tax rate of 62%. By comparison, the average pumpkin spice tax rate at Target.com was just 14% across 20 items.

Coffee drinkers’ highest pumpkin spice premium? Welcome to Starbucks. The highest tax on the seasonal coffee drink was charged by the Pumpkin Spice Latte’s originator, Starbucks. The coffee chain charged $5.25 for its 16-oz. Pumpkin Spice Latte — exactly one dollar more than its 16-oz. Caffe Latte, sold for $4.25, in Manhattan’s Chelsea neighborhood. That’s an effective pumpkin spice tax rate of 23.53%.

McDonald’s, Dunkin’ Donuts and Whole Foods don’t charge a seasonal premium on most items. MagnifyMoney observed no significant pumpkin spice premium on any of the 10 seasonal items we identified at Whole Foods Market. Nor did we observe a premium on pumpkin spice drink options at McDonald’s or Dunkin’ Donuts.

The Top 10 Pumpkin Spice Tax Rates

Across all items reviewed, millennial-centric retailer Trader Joe’s charged the highest premiums on its pumpkin-flavored products. It claimed three of the top 10 highest pumpkin spice tax rates in our study.

The retailer is also one of several in our study that not only charges more for pumpkin-spice products but often offers less product by weight as well. That means shoppers are spending more but getting much less for their money.

Take Trader Joe’s Pumpkin Pancake and Waffle Mix as one example. The national chain charged $1.99 for its 32-ounce Buttermilk Pancake and Waffle Mix and $2.99 for its 21.2-ounce Pumpkin Pancake and Waffle Mix variation — $1 more for a product with 10 fewer ounces.

Based on the sticker price alone, shoppers may think they paid 50% more for the pumpkin spice version. But on a price-per-ounce basis, they paid more than twice the price — an effective pumpkin spice tax rate of 133%.

Trader Joe’s certainly wasn’t the only retailer taking advantage of the pumpkin spice hype.

At first glance, a Target.com shopper might see no difference in the price of Nabisco’s Oreos vs. the pumpkin spice version. As of late September, they had the same sticker price of $2.99. But the pumpkin spice version came with just 10.7 ounces — 3.6 ounces less than the original flavor. On a price per ounce basis, that’s an effective pumpkin spice tax rate of 33%.

See some of the highest-taxed items below. Percentages may be rounded, and list prices are used for comparisons. Per-unit cost is based on per-ounce figures where available, or per unit/count):

Pumpkin Spice Tax

Retailer

Product

Sticker Price

Price Per Oz./Unit

Per Oz./Unit

Sticker Price

1. Trader Joe's

Buttermilk Pancake
and waffle mix — 32 oz.

$1.99

$0.06

133%

50.25%

Pumpkin Pancake and
waffle mix — 21.2 oz.

$2.99

$0.14

2. Trader Joe's

Joe Joe's cookies —
20 oz.

$2.99

$0.15

87%

0.00%

Pumpkin Joe Joe's —
10.5 oz.

$2.99

$0.28

3. Trader Joe's

Joes O's —
15 oz.

$1.99

$0.13

69%

35.18%

Pumpkin O's —
12 oz.

$2.69

$0.22

4. Walmart.com

Twinings of London
Winter Holiday Spiced
Apple Chai, K-Cup
Portion Pack — 12 ct.

$8.11

$0.68

59%

60.17%

Twinings Pumpkin
Spice Chai Tea Keurig
K-Cups — 12 ct.

$12.99

$1.08

5. Target.com

Archer Farms Dark Chocolate Almonds — 13 oz.

$5.99

$0.46

59%

-33.4%

Archer Farms Pumpkin Spice Almonds — 5.5 oz.

$3.99

$0.73

6. Target.com

Krusteaz Honey
Cornbread & Muffin
Mix — 15 oz.

$1.67

$0.11

36.4%

35.9%

Krusteaz Pumpkin
Spice Muffin
Mix — 15 oz.

$2.27

$0.15

7. Target.com

Oreo Original
Chocolate Sandwich
Cookies — 14.3 oz.

$2.99

$0.21

33%

0.00%

Oreo Pumpkin
Spice Creme Sandwich
Cookies — 10.7 oz.

$2.99

$0.28

8. FreshDirect

Land O'Lakes
Spreadable Butter With
Canola Oil — 8 oz.

$2.89

$0.36

28%

3.46%

Land O'Lakes
Spreadable Butter,
Pumpkin Pie
Spice — 6.5 oz.

$2.99

$0.46

9. Walmart.com

Victor Allen's
Coffee Donut Shop
Blend Medium Roast
Single Serve Brew
Cups — 0.35 oz., 12 ct.

$3.25

$0.27

26%

26.8%

Victor Allen's Coffee
Pumpkin Spice Medium
Roast Single Serve Brew
Cups — 0.34 oz., 12 ct.

$4.12

$0.34

10. Walmart.com

Entenmann's Dark
Roast Coffee Single Serve
Cups — 0.35 oz, 10 ct.

$6.99

$0.69

23.2%

21.6%

Entenmann's Coffee
Pumpkin Spice Cups —
10 ct.

$8.50

$0.85

The above items were reviewed in-person at retailers in the Chelsea area of Manhattan on Sept. 22 and with online retailers on Sept. 25-26.

The Pumpkin Spice Latte Tax

Some may notice that the coveted pumpkin spice latte (PSL) — made popular by Starbucks after its debut in fall 2003 and now offered by coffee shops worldwide — typically carries a noticeable mark-up.

Starbucks’ grande-size PSL, for example, is sold at a 23.5% premium above the price of its non-pumpkiny caffe latte counterpart.

Pret a Manger and Panera also charge more for pumpkin lattes, although neither quite as high as Starbucks.

What you ultimately pay for your PSL may simply come down to how you like your coffee. You won’t pay a PSL tax at McDonald’s or Dunkin’ Donuts, but If you prefer Starbucks or Panera, paying the premium may be worth what you get.

Here’s what it will cost you to buy a 16-ounce pumpkin spice latte at some prominent national coffee chains in the Chelsea section of Manhattan.

Coffee Shop

Product

Sticker
Price

Pumpkin Spice
Tax Rate

Starbucks

Caffe Latte
16 oz.

$4.25

23.53%

Pumpkin Spice Latte
16 oz.

$5.25

Pret A Manger

Latte
16 oz.

$3.59

13.93%

Spiced Pumpkin Latte
16 oz.

$4.09

Starbucks

Chai Latte
16 oz.

$4.45

11.24%

Pumpkin Spice Chai Latte
16 oz.

$4.95

Panera Bread

Caffe Latte
16 oz.

$4.09

4.89%

Pumpkin Spice Latte
16 oz.

$4.29

Dunkin’ Donuts

Latte
16 oz.

$2.99

0.00%

Pumpkin Flavored Latte
16 oz.

$2.99

McDonald’s

Latte
16 oz.

$2.59

0.00%

Pumpkin Spice Latte
16 oz.

$2.59

The above items were reviewed in-person at retailers in the Chelsea area of Manhattan on Sept. 22.

Retailer Spotlight: Trader Joe’s

As mentioned above, America’s favorite grocery store after Publix and Wegmans had the highest-taxed seasonal items in our analysis.

Among the highest-taxed items: Trader Joe’s Pumpkin Pancake and Waffle Mix — costing much more per ounce than TJ’s Buttermilk Pancake and Waffle Mix — and Joe Joe’s cookies.

Both the seasonal and nonseasonal Joe Joe’s are priced at $2.99 on the sticker. However, the seasonal Pumpkin Joe Joe’s cost 28 cents per ounce, while the regular Joe Joe’s cost 15 cents an ounce. In this case, customers pay almost double per ounce — something like the same price for half the cookies.

MagnifyMoney reached out to Trader Joe’s for comment but did not receive a response.

See below for a breakdown of some products.

Trader Joe's

Pumpkin Spice Tax

Product

Sticker Price

Price Per Oz./Unit

Per Oz./Unit

Sticker Price

Buttermilk pancake and
waffle mix — 32 oz.

$1.99

$0.06

133%

50.25%

Pumpkin pancake and waffle mix — 21.2 oz.

$2.99

$0.14

Joe Joe's cookies — 20 oz.

$2.99

$0.15

87%

0.00%

Pumpkin Joe Joe's — 10.5 oz.

$2.99

$0.28

Joes O's — 15 oz.

$1.99

$0.13

69%

35.18%

Pumpkin O's — 12 oz.

$2.69

$0.22

Plain bagels — 6 ct.

$2.29

$0.38

10.5%

8.73%

Pumpkin bagels — 6 ct.

$2.49

$0.42

Gluten-free buttermilk
pancake mix — 18 oz.

$3.99

$0.22

9.1%

12.53%

Gluten-free pumpkin
pancake mix — 18.5 oz.

$4.49

$0.24

The above items were reviewed in-person at the Trader Joe’s at 675 6th Ave. in New York City on Sept. 22.

Retailer Spotlight: Target

We found the highest seasonal-item, per-unit “tax” at Target.com on chocolate-covered pumpkin spice almonds.

At first glance, the seasonal almonds look cheaper than the comparable dark chocolate-covered almonds, sold in a larger package. When you look closer, you realize the pumpkin spice almonds are sold for almost 60 percent more per ounce. However, it’s important to note the discrepancy could be due to the difference in packaging.

MagnifyMoney contacted Target for comment but did not receive a response.

See below for a breakdown of the PST applied online at Target.com.

Target.com

Pumpkin Spice Tax

Product

Sticker Price

Price Per Oz./Unit

Per Oz./Unit

Sticker Price

Archer Farms Dark Chocolate Almonds — 13 oz.

$5.99

$0.46

59%

-33.4%

Archer Farms Pumpkin Spice Almonds
— 5.5 oz.

$3.99

$0.73

Krusteaz Honey Cornbread &
Muffin Mix — 15 oz.

$1.67

$0.11

36.4%

35.9%

Krusteaz Pumpkin Spice
Muffin Mix — 15 oz.

$2.27

$0.15

Oreo Original Chocolate
Sandwich Cookies — 14.3 oz.

$2.99

$0.21

33%

0.00%

Oreo Pumpkin Spice Creme
Sandwich Cookies — 10.7 oz.

$2.99

$0.28

International Delight® French
Vanilla Singles Coffee Creamer — 24 ct.

$2.64

$0.11

18.2%

20.8%

International Delight Pumpkin
Spice Coffee Creamer — 24 ct.

$3.19

$0.13

Tazo Organic Tea Latte
Chai Black Tea — 32 fl. oz.

$3.14

$0.10

10%

11.2%

Tazo Chai Pumpkin Spice
Latte Tea Concentrate — 32 fl. oz.

$3.49

$0.11

Keurig Green Mountain Breakfast
Blend Light Roast Coffee — K-Cup Pods — 18 ct.

$10.99

$0.61

9.8%

9.1%

Keurig Green Mountain Coffee
Pumpkin Spice Coffee K-Cups — 18 ct.

$11.99

$0.67

KISSES Halloween Fall Harvest
Milk Chocolates — 11 oz./approx. 69 ct.

$3.59

$0.33

9.1%

0.00%

KISSES Halloween Fall Harvest
Pumpkin Spice — 10 oz./approx. 64 ct.

$3.59

$0.36

Tazo Chai Black Tea — 20 ct.

$3.14

$0.16

6.3%

11.2%

Tazo Chai Pumpkin Spice
Tea — 20 ct.

$3.49

$0.17

Quaker Fruit & Cream Instant
Oatmeal Variety — 8 ct.

$2.59

$0.32

6.25%

5.8%

Quaker Pumpkin Spice Instant
Oatmeal Limited Edition — 8 ct.

$2.74

$0.34

Archer Farms Antioxidant Trail Mix — 9 oz.

$5.99

$0.67

-50.7%

-50.1%

Archer Farms Trail Mix Pumpkin Spice —
9 oz.

$2.99

$0.33

The above items were reviewed online, at Target.com, on Sept. 25-26.

Retailer Spotlight: Walmart

At Walmart.com, the most-taxed item was tea. Specifically: Twinings of London’s Pumpkin Spice Chai Tea Keurig Cups. Compared with the brand’s Winter Holiday Spiced Apple Chai flavor, the pumpkin spice variant costs about 60 percent more for the same number of cups. MagnifyMoney contacted Walmart for comment but did not yet receive a response.

See below for a breakdown of the Pumpkin Spice Tax applied online at Walmart.com.

Walmart.com

Pumpkin Spice Tax

Product

Sticker Price

Price Per Oz./Unit

Per Oz./Unit

Sticker Price

Twinings of London Winter Holiday
Spiced Apple Chai, K-Cup Portion Pack — 12 ct.

$8.11

$0.68

59%

60.17%

Twinings Pumpkin Spice Chai Tea
Keurig K-Cups — 12 ct.

$12.99

$1.08

Victor Allen's Coffee Donut Shop
Blend Medium Roast Single Serve Brew Cups —
0.35 oz., 12 ct.

$3.25

$0.27

26%

26.8%

Victor Allen's Coffee Pumpkin Spice
Medium Roast Single Serve Brew Cups —
0.34 oz., 12 ct.

$4.12

$0.34

Entenmann's Dark Roast Coffee
Single Serve Cups — 0.35 oz., 10 ct.

$6.99

$0.69

23.2%

21.6%

Entenmann's Coffee Pumpkin
Spice Cups — 10 ct./p>

$8.50

$0.85

Coffee-Mate Sweetened Original
Liquid Coffee Creamer — 1.5-liter pump bottle

$24.36

$0.48

18.7%

19%

Coffee-Mate Liquid Creamer, Pumpkin Spice — 1.5-liter pump bottle

$28.98

$0.57

Keurig K-Cups, Green Mountain
Nantucket Blend Coffee — 18 ct.

$10.98

$0.61

8.2%

8.74%

Keurig K-Cups Green Mountain
Pumpkin Spice Coffee — 18 ct.

$11.94

$0.66

Nestle Professional Coffee-Mate
Peppermint Mocha Liquid Coffee Creamer Singles,
Peppermint Mocha Flavor — 0.38 fl. oz. - 50/box

$15.04

$0.30

6.7%

6.3%

Nestle Coffee-Mate Pumpkin Spice
Liquid Coffee Creamer — 50-0.375 fl. oz. tubs

$15.99

$0.32

Oreo Sandwich Cookies — 14.3 oz.

$3.83

$0.27

3.7%

-22.2%

Oreo Sandwich Cookies Pumpkin
Spice — 10.7 oz.

$2.98

$0.28

Pepperidge Farm Milano Milk
Chocolate Cookies — 6 oz. pack

$3.83

$0.64

-14.1%

0.00%

Pepperidge Farm Pumpkin Spice
Milano Cookies — 7 oz.

$3.83

$0.55

Lindt Lindor Hazelnut Milk
Chocolate Truffles — 5.1 oz.

$3.78

$0.74

-16.2%

16.4%

Lindt Lindor Milk Chocolate Truffles
Pumpkin Spice — 5.1 oz.

$3.16

$0.62

Quaker Life Multigrain Cereal,
Vanilla — 18 oz. box

$3.83

$0.21

-19%

-21.7%

Quaker Life Pumpkin Spice
Multigrain Cereal Limited Edition — 18 oz.

$3.00

$0.17

International Delight French Vanilla
Non-Dairy Coffee Creamer Singles — 24 ct. box

$3.28

$0.14

-28.6%

-24.4%

International Delight Pumpkin Pie
Spice Non-Dairy Coffee Creamer Singles — 24 ct. box

$2.48

$0.10

The above items were reviewed online, at Walmart.com, on Sept. 25-26.

The future of pumpkin spice

The latest Nielsen data shows Americans’ taste for all things pumpkin spice is still going strong, but has begun to wane in recent years. Sales of pumpkin-themed consumer goods were up 6.3 percent from July 2016 – July 2017, bringing in $414 million vs. $389.5 million from July 2015 – July 2016. But that was a slower rate of growth than the year prior, when sales grew by 10.8%.

Still, that won’t stop retailers from seizing an opportunity to cash in on the trend while it’s still hot, said food industry analyst and editor of Supermarketguru.com, Phil Lempert.

“A lot of that has to do with the time of year that it is packed and the amount of money that it takes to store those products…which is why at times we are going to see higher prices on those products,” he told MagnifyMoney.

Lempert added that companies have to make up the cost of carrying and storing the additional seasonal items in a warehouse. “You want to get it out there at a fair price but you want to cover your costs otherwise you don’t have a business,” he said.

If you’re determined to get your pumpkin spice kick this year, the longer you wait to buy, the more likely you’ll be able to score a deal. Seasonal items tend to get the steepest price cuts as the season ends and retailers move to clear out their inventory.

Advertiser Disclosure: The products that appear on this site may be from companies from which MagnifyMoney receives compensation. This compensation may impact how and where products appear on this site (including, for example, the order in which they appear). MagnifyMoney does not include all financial institutions or all products offered available in the marketplace.

Brittney Laryea
Brittney Laryea |

Brittney Laryea is a writer at MagnifyMoney. You can email Brittney at brittney@magnifymoney.com

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2019 Fed Meeting Predictions — No More Rate Hikes Until 2020

Editorial Note: The editorial content on this page is not provided or commissioned by any financial institution. Any opinions, analyses, reviews, statements or recommendations expressed in this article are those of the author’s alone, and may not have been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any of these entities prior to publication.

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The March Fed meeting put the kibosh on more rate hikes in 2019. With FOMC policy on pause, market interest rates should hold steady (or even decline in some cases) for financial products you use every day. Read on for our predictions for each upcoming Fed meeting and updates on what went down at the most recent conclaves.

What happened at the March Fed meeting

The Federal Reserve signaled no rate hikes this year, and the possibility of only one increase in 2020. The Fed has pivoted pretty rapidly from its hawkish stance in 2018 to a more dovish outlook as it puts policy on ice. This change in tone grows directly from the FOMC’s observation of slowing growth in economic activity, namely household spending and business investment. The Fed also noted that employment gains have plateaued along with the unemployment rate, which nevertheless remains at very low levels.

So the federal funds rate looks to remain at 2.25% to 2.50% for a year or more, and the FOMC highlighted that this is the not-too-hot, not-too-cold level that for now best serves its dual mandate to “foster maximum employment and price stability.”

The Fed also released its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The March SEP indicated a median projected federal funds rate of 2.6% for 2020, which is why everybody is discussing the possibility of at least one, small increase next year.

For those who were really hoping for at least one more rate hike, all is not lost — Tendayi Kapfidze, LendingTree chief economist, believes we shouldn’t take March’s decision too gravely. “There are special factors that suggest the economy could reaccelerate,” he says. “The government shutdown threw a wrench into things, slowing some activity and distorting how we measure the economy.” He also remarks that since the financial crisis, data in the first quarter has continued to come in weak, still leaving room for everything to reaccelerate in the second and third quarters. He points to the already strong labor market as a plus.

Fed economic forecasts hint at a possible rate cut by the end of 2019. Just as the Fed projects a slightly higher federal funds rate in 2020, it also posted a projected 2.4% for 2019. Note that this projected rate falls below the upper end of the current rate corridor of 2.5%. This means the doves may want to see a possible rate cut if improvements in the economic outlook don’t materialize by mid-year.

When asked about this potential rate cut, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the Committee’s current positive outlook, while also emphasizing that it remains mindful of potential risks. Still, he maintained that “the data are not currently sending a signal that we need to move in one direction or another.” He also remarked that since it’s still early in the year, they have limited and mixed data to consult.

Kapfidze offers a more concretely positive outlook, noting that the chances of a rate cut are pretty slim. “To get a rate cut, you’d have to have sustained growth below 2%. There would have to be further weakness in the economy, like if trade deals get messier, to warrant a rate cut.”

The Fed downgraded its economic outlook for 2019 for the second time in recent months. In line with Kapfidze’s predictions, we did see a weaker economic outlook coming out of this month’s Fed meeting. The median GDP forecast for 2019 and 2020 decreased from December projections, while it remained the same for 2021 and beyond. This comes hand in hand with the decreased fed funds rate projections.

The FOMC increased their unemployment projections, which Kapfidze found surprising because the labor market has been so strong. “Maybe they believe that those numbers indicate a deceleration,” he said, “but really, it has to be consistent considering the other changes that they made.”

Why the Fed March meeting is important for you

It’s easy to let all of this monetary policy talk go in one ear and out the other. But what the Fed does or doesn’t change has an impact on your daily life. Without a rate hike since December, we’re already starting to see mortgage rates fall. This is helpful not only for those who want to buy a home, but also for those who bought homes at last year’s highs to refinance.

As for personal loans and credit cards, we may still see these rates continue to increase, just at a slower rate. These rates have little chance of decreasing because lenders may take the current weaker economic data as a sign that the economy is going to be more risky.

Deposit accounts will feel the opposite effects as banks may start to cut savings account rates. At best, banks will keep their rates where they are for now, until more evidence for a rate cut arises.

Our March Fed meeting predictions

There’s little chance of a rate hike this time around. In a policy speech on March 8, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced the FOMC’s patient approach when considering any changes to the current policy, indicating he saw “nothing in the outlook demanding an immediate policy response and particularly given muted inflation pressures.”

This is no different from what we heard back in January, when the Fed took a breather after its December rate hike. There was no change to the federal funds rate at that meeting, and Powell had stressed that the FOMC would be exercising patience throughout 2019, waiting for signs of risk from economic data before making any further policy changes.

Further strengthening the case for rates on hold, the reliably hawkish Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren cited several reasons that “justify a pause in the recent monetary tightening cycle,” in a policy speech on March 5. His big tell was citing the lack of immediate signs of strengthening inflation, which remains around the Fed’s target rate of 2%.

Even though there had been some speculation of a first quarter hike at the March Fed meeting, LendingTree chief economist Tendayi Kapfidze reminds us that the Fed remains, as ever, data-dependent. “The latest data has been on the weaker side, with the exception of wage inflation,” he says.

The economic forecast may be weaker than December’s. The Fed will release their longer-range economic predictions after the March meeting. These projections should include adjustments in the outlook for GDP, unemployment and inflation. The Fed will also provide its forecast for future federal funds rates.

Kapfidze expects we’ll see a weaker forecast this time around than what we saw in December. “I except the GDP forecast to go down, and the federal funds rate expectations to go down.” This follows a December report that posted lower numbers than the September projections.

Despite flagging economic projections, Rosengren offered a steady outlook in his speech. “My view is that the most likely outcome for 2019 is relatively healthy U.S. economic growth,” he said, again attributing this to “inflation very close to Fed policymakers’ 2 percent target and a U.S. labor market that continues to tighten somewhat.”

The Fed’s economic predictions offer clues to its future policy decisions. In September, the Fed projected a 2019 federal funds rate of 3.1%. That number dropped to 2.9% in the December report. With the current rate at 2.25% to 2.5%, there’s still room for more hikes this year. Keep in mind, however, that, the March meeting may narrow projections for the rest of 2019.

As for Kapfidze, he thinks we’ll see a rate hike in the second half of the year. “If wage inflation continues to increase and it trickles more into the economy, the Fed could choose to raise rates due to that risk.”

However, as of March 12, markets see the odds of a rate hike this year at zero, while the odds of a federal funds cut has risen to around 20%, based the Fed Fund futures.

Upcoming Fed meeting dates:

Here is the FOMC’s calendar of scheduled meetings for 2019. Each entry is tentative until confirmed at the meeting proceeding it. For past meetings, click on the dates below to catch up on our pre-game forecast and after-action report.

Our January Fed meeting predictions

Don’t expect a rate hike. The FOMC ended the year with yet another rate hike, raising the federal funds rate from 2.25 to 2.5%. It was the committee’s fourth increase of 2018, which began with a rate of just 1.5%.

But the January Fed meeting will likely be an increase-free one. Tendayi Kapfidze, chief economist at LendingTree, the parent company of MagnifyMoney, said the probability of a rate hike is “basically zero.”

Kapfidze’s assessment is twofold. First, he noted that the Fed typically announces rate increases during the third month of each quarter, not the first. This means a hike announcement would be much more likely during the FOMC’s March 19-20 meeting, rather than in January.

Perhaps more importantly, Kapfidze said there’s been too much market flux for the FOMC to make a new decision on the federal funds rate. He predicts the Fed will likely wait for more evidence before it considers another rate hike.

“I think a lot of it is a reaction to market volatility, and therefore that’s lowered the expectations for federal fund hikes,” Kapfidze said.

But if a rate hike is so unlikely, what should consumers expect from the January Fed meeting? Here are three things to keep an eye on.

#1 The frequency of rate hikes moving forward

It’s unclear when the next increase will occur, but the FOMC’s post-meeting statement could give a clearer picture of how often rate hikes might occur in the future.

The Fed released its latest economic projections last month, which predicted the federal funds rate would likely reach 2.9% by the end of 2019. This figure was a decline from its September 2018 projections, which placed that figure at 3.1%.

As a result, many analysts — Kapfidze included — are forecasting a slower year for rate hikes than in 2018. Kapfdize said some analysts are predicting zero increases, or even a rate decrease, but he believes that may be too conservative.

“I still think the underlying economic data supports at least two rate hikes, maybe even three,” Kapfidze said.

Kapfidze’s outlook falls more in line with the Fed’s current projections, as it would mean two rate hikes of 0.25% at some point this year. There could be more clarity after the January meeting, as the FOMC’s accompanying statement will help indicate whether the Fed’s monetary policy has changed since December.

#2 An economic forecast for 2019

The FOMC’s post-meeting statement always includes a brief assessment of the economy, and this month’s comments will provide a helpful first look at the outlook for 2019.

Consumers will have to wait until March for the Fed’s full projections — those are only updated after every other meeting — but the FOMC will follow its January gathering with its usual press release. This statement normally provides insight into the state of household spending, inflation, the unemployment rate and GDP growth, as well as a prediction of how quickly the economy will grow in the coming months.

At last month’s Fed meeting, the committee found that household spending was continuing to increase, unemployment was remaining low and overall inflation remained near 2%. Kapfidze expects January’s forecast to be fairly similar, as recent market fluctuations might make it difficult for the FOMC to predict any major changes.

Read more: What the Fed Rate Hike Means for Your Investments

“I wouldn’t expect any significant change in the tone compared to December,” Kapfidze said. “I think they’ll want to see a little more data come in, and a little more time pass.”

At the very least, the statement will let consumers know if the Fed is taking a patient approach to its analysis, a decision that may help indicate just how volatile the FOMC considers the economy to be.

#3 A response to the government shutdown

The big mystery entering January’s Fed meeting is the partial government shutdown. While Kapfidze said the FOMC’s outlook should be similar to December, he also warned that things could change quickly if Congress and President Trump can’t agree on a spending bill soon.

“The longer it goes on, and the more contentious it gets, the less confidence consumers have — the less confidence business have. And a lot of that could translate to increased financial market volatility,” Kapfidze said.

Kapfidze added that the longer the government stays closed, the more likely the FOMC is to react with a change in monetary policy. During the October 2013 shutdown, for example, the Fed’s Board of Governors released a statement encouraging banks and credit unions to allow consumers a chance at renegotiating debt payments, such as mortgages, student loans and credit cards.

“The agencies encourage financial institutions to consider prudent workout arrangements that increase the potential for creditworthy borrowers to meet their obligations,” the 2013 statement said.

What happened at the January Fed meeting:

No rate hike for now

In its first meeting of 2019, the Federal Open Market Committee announced it was keeping the federal fund rate at 2.25% to 2.5%, therefore not raising the rates, as widely predicted. This decision follows much speculation surrounding the economy after the Fed rate hike in December 2018, which was the fourth rate hike last year. In its press release, the FOMC cited the near-ideal inflation rate of 2%, strong job growth and low unemployment as reasons for leaving the rate unchanged.

In the post-meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed that the committee feels that its current policy is appropriate and will adopt a “wait-and-see approach” in regards to future policy changes.

Read more: How Fed Rate Hikes Change Borrowing and Savings Rates

Impact of government shutdown is yet to be seen

The FOMC’s official statement did not address the government shutdown in detail, although it was discussed briefly in the press conference that followed. Powell said he believes that any GDP lost due to the shutdown will be regained in the second quarter, providing there isn’t another shutdown. Any permanent effect would come from another shutdown, but he did not answer how a shutdown might change future policy.

What the January meeting bodes for the rest of the year

Don’t expect more rate hikes. As for what this decision might signal for the future, Powell maintains that the committee is “data dependent”. This data includes labor market conditions, inflation pressures and expectations and price stability. He stressed that they will remain patient while continuing to look at financial developments both abroad and at home. These factors will help determine when a rate adjustment would be appropriate, if at all. When asked whether a rate change would mean an increase or a decrease, he emphasized again the use of this data for clarification on any changes. Still, the Fed did predict in December that the federal funds rate could reach 2.9% by the end of this year, indicating a positive change rather than a negative one.

CD’s might start looking better. For conservative savers wondering whether or not it’s worth it to tie up funds in CDs and risk missing out on future rate hikes – long-term CDs are looking like a safer and safer bet, according to Ken Tumin, founder of DepositAccounts.com, another LendingTree-owned site. Post-Fed meeting, Tumin wrote in his outlook, “I can’t say for sure, but it’s beginning to look more likely that we have already passed the rate peak of this cycle. It may be time to start moving money into long-term CDs.”

Look out for March. Depending on who you ask, the FOMC’s inaction was to be expected. As Tendayi Kapfidze, LendingTree’s chief economist, noted [below], if there is going to be a rate increase this quarter, it will be announced in the FOMC’s March meeting. We will also have to wait for the March meeting to get the Fed’s full economic projections. For now, its statement confirms that household spending is still on an incline, inflation remains under control and unemployment is low. It also notes that growth of business fixed investment has slowed down from last year. As for inflation, market-based measures have decreased in recent months, but survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations haven’t changed much.

 

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Learn more: What is the Federal Open Market Committee?

The FOMC is one of two monetary policy-controlling bodies within the Federal Reserve. While the Fed’s Board of Governors oversees the discount rate and reserve requirements, the FOMC is responsible for open market operations, which are defined as the purchase and sale of securities by a central bank.

Most importantly, the committee controls the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks and credit unions can lend reserve balances to other banks and credit unions.

The committee has eight scheduled meetings each year, during which its members assess the current economic environment and make decisions about national monetary policy — including whether it will institute new rate hikes.

A look back at 2018

Before the FOMC gathers this January, it’s worth understanding what the Fed did in 2018, and how those decisions might affect future policy.

The year 2018 was the Fed’s most aggressive rate-raising year in a decade. The FOMC’s four rate hikes were the most since the 2008 Financial Crisis, after the funds rate stayed at nearly zero for seven years. This approach was largely based on the the FOMC’s economic projections, which found that from 2017 to 2018 GDP grew, unemployment declined and inflation its Fed-preferred rate of 2%.

In addition to the rate hikes, the FOMC also continued to implement its balance sheet normalization program, through which the Fed is aiming to reduce its securities holdings.

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Dillon Thompson
Dillon Thompson |

Dillon Thompson is a writer at MagnifyMoney. You can email Dillon here

Lauren Perez
Lauren Perez |

Lauren Perez is a writer at MagnifyMoney. You can email Lauren here

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